drops below a quarter in any 5-year period if the rising enrollment ratio goal is to be reached.
At the secondary level the aim of raising enrollment ratios to 50 percent by 1990 calls for a tremendous increase in enrollments. These would need to increase fourfold during the 1960's from a relatively small base. Toward the end of the 1970's alternative trends in fertility begin to make a difference, but for the decade as a whole enrollments would almost need to double again in Projection III, and more than double in the other two projections. During the 1980's the benefits of the decline in fertility come into their own and enrollment increases would be 62 percent in Projection III, as against 86 percent in Projection II and 123 percent in Projection I.
The total teaching force required, of course, increases at the same rate as enrollments except where a change is postulated in pupil/teacher ratios. The relatively modest lowering of pupil/teacher ratios that we have postulated makes only a marginal difference to total teacher requirements. The teacher requirements of raising enrollment ratios are much larger. In either case, differences according to fertility are striking and show up earlier in primary than in secondary education. Given rising enrollment rates but no change in pupil/teacher ratios, Projection III would require the teaching force in primary schools to double between 1970 and 1985 (15 years). The high fertility model (Projection I) would require the same doubling in about 9 years, and the more slowly declining fertility model in 10 years.
The actual number of teachers who must be recruited in any given period is much higher than the net increase, because of the need to replace teachers who die, retire, or leave the profession. There are no data on the loss rate to the teaching force in Pakistan, except for a rough estimate by UNESCO that 20 percent of the teaching force must be replaced every 5 years. If this is true, then if enrollment rates are not raised in primary schools, teachers needed for replacement in the high fertility projection outnumber those needed for enrollment increase up to about 1975 and remain at above 40 percent of total teacher requirements up to the end of the projection period. If fertility declines, replacement needs continue to outweigh the needs posed by increasing enrollment throughout the period. If enrollment rates are raised, on the other hand, new teacher requirements for enrollment increase greatly outnumber replacement needs, even in the projection with rapidly declining fertility. In the high fertility projection, they outnumber replacement needs by a ratio of three to one or better.
What are the cost implications of these trends? In an effort to find out,
t*l 1 HP QCClimtrf ir\n C \x/PrA mo r\& rorro rrlinrr f-rotnrlc' i-n rar^-t iY-v*an f on/-I /-><ir-\if a 1be available at the end of 1970.s